Injuries, play-offs and inconsistency: To reach the World Cup, Italy must break the cycle of tragedy

The Italian team lost 1-4 to the Norwegian team, and its last hope of directly qualifying for next year's World Cup was completely shattered.

Admittedly, the Azzurri knew before playing at the San Siro Stadium that only a 9-0 victory could reverse the goal difference gap with this Nordic team and reach the top of the group. However, the Norwegian team's strong performance in the second half helped them secure a spot in the World Cup. They successfully qualified with a brilliant record of winning 8 games and scoring 37 goals. For Italy, this means they will reach the World Cup play-offs for the third consecutive time - they have been disappointed in the previous two times, and now they urgently need to avoid the embarrassing situation of missing the World Cup for three consecutive years.

The Azzurri are stuck in a recurring cycle: the core players are in a sluggish state, the coaching staff is conservative in tactics and dare not take risks, and injuries plague veterans and rising stars - all kinds of problems ultimately led to the team missing out on the World Cup.

As the March play-offs approach, Gattuso and the Italian team he leads must break out of this cycle, qualify for the main draw, and prove to doubters that the team has not completely sunk.

Core players need to replicate the status of the club, otherwise they may be abandoned

In the 1-4 loss to Norway, and even throughout the World Cup qualifying journey, some of Italy's top players became the biggest disappointment.

The performance of Di Lorenzo, Bastoni and others is far from the style when they led Naples and Inter Milan to win championships in recent years, and they are like cheap imitations. At the same time, the experienced midfield combination of Locatelli and Barrera also failed to build an effective offensive in the midfield.

When the team hits a slump (the haze has spread over the Azzurri), people should expect the core players to step forward rather than hide in the shadows. Successive Italian coaches have always placed high hopes on their country's "stars", but failed to achieve corresponding on-field performance. If Gennaro Gattuso wants to usher in a new era for Italian football, it may be a good idea to take moderate risks in his selection.

There is no shortage of players in Italy who are eager to be called up by the national team. This season, some local new stars have performed well in the domestic league. But in this crucial game against Norway, Gattuso only had one player under the age of 25 in the starting lineup - Inter Milan's Esposito.

Esposito scored his first goal at San Siro and was one of the few players in the starting lineup who was not completely abnormal. There are more young players in Italy who are eager to play for the country and prove themselves. In addition, experienced players such as Berardi and Orsolini are in excellent form this season, but they have not received enough attention from the national team.

Many national team coaches have achieved success by relying on the "status first" selection principle, creating elite teams selected based on strength-the opportunity to play depends on the current status and performance, rather than past resume, market value or so-called "potential value."

The core crux: The proliferation of injuries and Serie A's reliance on foreign aid have brought down the Italian team.

Although the team and coaching staff (the problem existed before Gattuso took office) are undoubtedly mainly responsible for the current predicament, the helmsman and core players of the Azzurri are also facing some force majeure factors.

First of all, Italian football is experiencing a serious wave of tendon and ligament tear injuries, and this problem continues to hinder the growth of young players.

For experienced players, returning to form after a serious injury requires a huge effort - some players never even return to their peak. Spinazzola was a member of Italy's winning squad at Euro 2021 and was named to the best team of the tournament despite rupturing his Achilles tendon against Hungary in the quarter-finals. He eventually returned from injury and became a reliable force for Conte's Napoli to win the championship last season. However, since winning the European Cup, the wing-back has only played 8 games in four years.

Similarly, although Gattuso insists that Chiesa's continued absence is due to the player's own request, the winger is also one of the talented players who declined after serious injuries. He has never returned to his previous level after suffering an anterior cruciate ligament injury.

In addition, recently two extremely talented young defensive stars, Scalvini and Leoni, have also suffered from stagnant or even interrupted development due to serious injuries. Scalvini suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury in the final game of the 2023-24 season and missed the 2024 European Cup and the subsequent half-season; every time he returned from injury, the 21-year-old central defender would suffer new complications or injuries. Since the injury, he has only played 10 games in Serie A.

On the other side, 18-year-old Leoni transferred from Parma to Premier League champion Liverpool at a high price this summer. However, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his debut against Southampton in the League Cup and will miss the rest of the season. In the short term, the absence of these players is frustrating; but in the long term, it is heartbreaking for the Italian team - the country's most promising rising stars have suffered a heavy blow, the negative impact may last for years, and some of the rising stars have not even reached the peak of their careers.

Finally, Serie A and its clubs are also to blame. Italian teams are increasingly relying on foreign players rather than developing local players, causing further problems for the Azzurri. The starting lineups of some Serie A teams are almost entirely made up of foreign players - this is not a problem in itself, but overall, this has led to a significant reduction in the opportunities for Italian players to show their ability.

Some people have called on the league to introduce new regulations to limit the number of foreign players for a single team, but this seems difficult to achieve at the administrative level of Serie A.

Wealthy teams argue that if they want to compete with Europe's top teams, they must rely on foreign talent. But this creates a dilemma: if the Italian national team is to benefit, the local league may have to make sacrifices. In the final analysis, money determines everything - therefore, Serie A's over-reliance on foreign aid seems difficult to curb.