3 Champions League tickets and 5 teams compete for. How to calculate this point in the final round of the Premier League?

Sports Weekly All Media Original

At 11 pm on Sunday, all 10 matches in the last round of the 2024-25 Premier League will be launched at the same time. The most important suspense is only one: in addition to Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham who have won the UEFA Champions League championship, who will win the Premier League with 3 other UEFA Champions League tickets? There are still five teams with the chance to "win" and are ranked from front to back: Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Villa and Nottingham Forest. Let's calculate the points for them one last time.

Manchester City

The situation is the simplest. As long as you don't lose to Fulham away, you will definitely enter the Champions League next season. Even if they lose, they will only be eliminated if Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa all win. If Nottingham Forest, which faces Newcastle, wins, the team can tie Manchester City with points, but since the two teams currently have a goal difference of up to 13, there is actually no possibility of overtaking. It is worth mentioning that Manchester City is 3 points behind Arsenal in the second place in the standings and has 8 fewer goals, so winning the final round is likely to lock in the third place.

Newcastle

defeated Everton at home to ensure promotion. If you lose points, it depends on the battle situation of Newcastle, Villa and Nottingham. If Newcastle draws, their conditions for entering the Champions League are that Villa loses points against Manchester United away, or Chelsea draws with Nottingham, and one of them is enough. If Newcastle loses, they need Villa to lose too to advance.

Chelsea's away defeat of direct rival Nottingham Forest was the safest way to advance - their goal difference was 11 more than Villarra, who were nearly impossible to overtake the ball when they both won. If you tie with Nottingham, Chelsea will need Villa to lose, or Newcastle will lose. If Maresca's team loses away, the conditions for promotion will become very harsh: Newcastle and Villa need to lose at the same time, and Newcastle will lose three more goals than Chelsea.

Villa

Even if you win away against Manchester United, it depends on others' face. Either Manchester City loses, Newcastle or Chelsea loses points, so that Emery's team can squeeze into the top five. If a draw with Manchester United, Newcastle will lose before Villa can get a ticket to the Champions League. Villa missed the Champions League, but they were at least in the top 7 in the Premier League and would have the qualification to participate in the Europa League or the European Association Cup.

Nottingham Forest defeated Chelsea at home is a prerequisite that must be reached, and then Newcastle or Villa will lose points before the Forest can enter the top five. If Forest draws, the theoretical opportunity cannot be said to be missing, but it is impossible to achieve. This requires Villa to lose the game and Newcastle to lose with a score difference of at least 10 goals. Like Villa, Forests can stay in the top 7 of the Premier League at the lowest level.

No. 8?

There is still a possibility that eight teams will play in the European Championship next season, provided that Chelsea ranks 7th in the Premier League and won the European Championship, or Newcastle ranks 7th in the Premier League and the European Championship, so that the 8th place in the league can be qualified for the European Championship that will be postponed. The probability of the former happening in both cases does not seem to be too small. Just Chelsea loses to Nottingham and Villa wins or draws against Manchester United, and the Blues are ranked 7th in the Premier League.

Currently, only two teams have the chance to win 8th. Brighton can maintain this ranking if he does not lose to Tottenham away in the last round. Brentford, who is currently ranked 9th in 3 points behind, needs to win the Seagulls and lose.