When the reconstruction results encounter bottlenecks! Rocket Magic s "life and death choice" may rewrite the alliance pattern

When the NBA season finale whistle rang, the Houston Rockets and the Orlando Magic stood at a similar crossroads - they survived a long period of reconstruction, holding a talented young roster and flexible salary space, but failed on the playoff stage. From 2021 to 2023, the two teams have been using high picks to accumulate potential new stars. Nowadays, the victory of the regular season is no longer the goal. How to cross the many levels of the playoffs and touch the championship trophy has become the ultimate problem ahead of them.

The data silently but cruelly reveals the dilemma of the two teams. The Magic ranked second in the league in the regular season defense, and the Rockets ranked fourth closely behind; in the competition for ball rights, the Magic led the league with steals, while the Rockets used the league's first offensive rebounding rate to tear open the opponent's defense line. However, the shooting shortcomings are shrouded in dark clouds. The Magic's real shooting percentage is 28th in the league and the Rockets are 24th. As the "bottom duo" in the playoff team, they paid a heavy price for it: the Rockets were eliminated by the Golden State Warriors twice at home due to the collapse of the defense line in the first half; even though the Magic successfully restricted the Boston Celtics' three-pointer, they were silent due to their own offense. They completely collapsed after scoring only 13 points in the third quarter. Their 26.3% playoff three-point shooting percentage is very different from other teams.

Orlando Magic: The "Jigsaw Crisis" around the superstar

The Magic's 41 wins in the regular season record are heartbreaking injuries. The leading forward Franz Wagner and Paul Banchero were absent for a long time due to a rare oblique abdominal muscle tear. Jaren Suggs was reimbursed for a season after 35 games. The 47-win team, which had fought with the Cleveland Cavaliers in seven games in 2024, was forced to swallow the bitter fruit of a decline in record performance. But the more pressing crisis comes from the salary structure – the maximum salary contract between Wagner and Bancero, coupled with Suggs’ upcoming contract renewal, will push the team to the brink of luxury tax in two years. The performance of the core players is also mixed. Bancero's dominance in the interior was first revealed, with an outstanding passing vision, but he never proved that he was the "win-loss player". When he was on the court in the past two years, the team was even slightly behind his opponent; the combination with Wagner did not react in chemistry, and the two's similar playing styles resulted in the offense playing singles in turn and unable to form a joint force. What is even more worrying is Wagner's shooting form. His three-point shooting percentage plummeted from 32.1% to 26.1% in the second half of the season, and his stable performance of 87.1% at the free throw line is in a dazzling contrast with his struggle in long shots. The offseason magic urgently needs a "surgical" reinforcement. In addition to finding a center that can open up space and improve the shooting efficiency of all players, it is urgent to introduce a guard who can attack in series. The starting story of veteran Cory Joseph is inspiring, but it exposes the vacuum on the team's organizational end. Fortunately, the Magic holds a wealth of chips in their hands: giving up Mo Wagner's team option can avoid luxury taxes, middle-class contract players can be used for trading, and they also have two first-round picks and a large number of future draft picks in 2025. In theory, they can even package six first-round picks for big bets. But the key is whether the management can accurately find the puzzle that adapts to Banchero and Wagner and solve the ultimate puzzle of "whether the dual-core ceiling is?"

Houston Rockets: The "talent dilemma" of the leaderless

Compared with Magic, the Rockets face a mirror-like dilemma - with enviable talent depth, but never find a real leader. Fred VanVleet occasionally broke out against the Warriors in the playoffs, and Jaylen Green scored 38 points in a single game, but the defenders could not continue to break through the top defense line; All-star center Alperen Shin-kyung can tear apart a small lineup in the pick-and-roll, and has first-class pass support, but it exposed the problem of insufficient scoring stability in the head-on confrontation with Draymond Green.

However, Shin Kyung's potential is still worth looking forward to. If this center who is under 23 years old can regain the stable throwing and pitching feel of the 2023-2024 season, develop a more reliable mid-range jump shot, and improve free throw shooting percentage, there is a chance to grow into a key puzzle for the championship team. The Rockets also take the initiative in salary operations: Shen Jing's five-year contract of $187 million is extremely cost-effective. After giving up VanVleet's team option, he can not only renew Steven Adams and introduce scorers, but also maintain salary flexibility.

However, the greater challenge lies in future decision-making. Potential rookies such as Reed Shepard and Cam Whitmore have not yet realized their talents, and the Rockets may even add more strength in the draft draw; Jabbarry Smith's shooting potential coexist with technical shortcomings, and Tari Ethan's position overlaps with his teammates. Although Jaylen Green is the number one scorer, he is regarded as a bargaining chip for trading salary rather than a core team building. Holding Phoenix's unprotected draft pick, the Rockets can theoretically chase any star, but when to take action and which super giant bet will determine the fate of the team in the next few years.

The NBA trading market is undercurrent in the offseason, and the Rockets and the Magic are at the fork in the road to fate. The Magic needs to fix lineup loopholes around the existing core, while the Rockets need to make a real "king" from the talent pool. This is not only a battle to upgrade the lineup, but also the ultimate test of management's wisdom and courage - whoever can take the lead in making the final puzzle of the championship will truly touch the glory of the O'Brien Cup on the future playoff stage.