30 teams in 30 days: Timberwolves: The lineup is stable and the lower limit is guaranteed, but the upper limit depends on Hua Zi

At the end of last offseason, the Timberwolves were criticized verbally and verbally for the trade of Towns for Devine + Randle. Everyone believed that the Timberwolves traded away the team's All-Star center in exchange for only a high-quality role player + a data brush, which was obviously to avoid taxes rather than win games. However, as we said when we played devil's advocate at the time, the Timberwolves not only increased the depth of the lineup through this transaction, but also partially filled Conley's organizational tasks as he aged.

In the new season, for the Timberwolves, who have already had two consecutive Western Conference Finals, they naturally want to further attack the championship. In what aspects do they need to improve to achieve this goal? Today's article will be shared with you in detail:

1. Review of last season

Although the Timberwolves won 7 fewer games last season than in the 2024 season, the luck gap in key goals was an important reason. In fact, the team's net efficiency was only one place lower than in the 2024 season, mainly because the team needed to re-adjust in the early stage after the big trade. Moreover, when facing the top six defensive teams, the Timberwolves, who have a mid-range offensive efficiency, were able to score third in the league in points per 100 possessions. In addition, their overall offensive efficiency ranking in the regular season improved by 9 places. The significant improvement on the offensive end is real.

What is the reason for such a huge improvement in offense? The first reason is that the star Edwards began to shoot a lot of three-pointers with the ball and the shooting rate is very impressive, which creates huge space value for the team; the second reason is that Kyle Lee in the core rotation of the 24th season was replaced by DiVincenzo, and the offensive upgrade is huge; the third reason may be questioned, but in fact, to the Timberwolves, Randall's offensive value is greater than Towns! At first glance, this conclusion seems counterintuitive, because Towns is a center whose offensive influence ranks among the top three in the league, while Randall's influence data has always been average. However, for the Timberwolves, the team's core rotation players are better at finishing than organizing and supporting, which means that Towns cannot get high-quality artillery delivery in the team. As a forward player with excellent passing and control, Randall solved the problem of "the team's serious lack of organizational ability after Conley aged" later in the season. This activated the finishing skill package of other role players and truly connected the team.

In fact, if we only count the games after the trade deadline, the Timberwolves' winning rate ranks sixth in the league, and their net rating ranks third in the same period. They have shown themselves to be a strong team, and their outstanding athletic talent and size advantage have also helped them break into the Western Conference Finals again. However, facing the Thunder, which has a historical level of defensive capabilities, the Timberwolves' relying on raw athletic talent and relatively rough offensive methods were targeted, and finally stopped again.

2. Offseason operations

Logically speaking, the Timberwolves, who are determined to compete for the championship, should have strengthened from the buyer's side. However, the huge luxury tax pressure had to force them to give up one of the team's core rotations, Alexander Walker, and the players introduced were either rookies or marginal rotations of other teams. Obviously, the overall strength of the team was severely weakened.

Fortunately, the management has completed two very cost-effective contract extensions - Reed with an average salary of 25 million and Randall with an average salary of 100 million in three years. These two people are very scarce in the NBA. They correspond to the shooter center and the forward ball handler respectively. These two unique attributes alone will be of great help to the team. Even if they make a deal later, there will be no shortage of buyers.

After losing Walker, as shown in the table above, the team's rotation of qualified and above-level players returned to 7 players. Starting from the 8th player, the rating was only at the ordinary rotation level, and there was an obvious downgrade. Fortunately, the first 7 players generally have excellent attendance rates and rarely get injured. After 1-2 seasons of training, the tacit understanding and cohesion of the entire team are excellent. However, this also means that no matter who among the 7 players suffers long-term injuries, the overall performance of the team will drop to a higher level. This is a very risky approach.

To reduce the risk, the Timberwolves still need to tap into the rotation starting with the eighth man. Unfortunately, their overall performance last season was only at the ordinary rotation level at best. For example, Dillingham, who the team had high hopes for before the introduction of DiVincenzo, had low efficiency and made many mistakes in his limited playing time. In addition, the defensive end also needs to be protected, which is obviously far from the fans' expectations. Of course, Walker's departure also gives the newcomers a "chance to step up." If one or two people can stand out, it will be of great help to the team as a whole. Judging from the small sample size in the preseason, Shannon, Dillingham and Zhuzan may have more opportunities. Whether they can join the core rotation depends on their progress.

3. The most critical link in competing for the championship: Edwards's continued evolution

For a team that has entered the Western Conference Finals twice, the goal of the new season must be to compete for the championship, which requires Edwards to continue to evolve. In the above table, I have listed the changes in Huazi's overall offensive data in the past five seasons. It can be seen that last season he finally achieved a true shooting percentage of more than 60%, and his scoring efficiency has been steadily improving in the past five seasons. Especially last season, his offensive production with the ball was very high. He could score 88 points in all the main offensive ball hands, and his efficiency was also very good. 0.98 points per round. In terms of scoring ability, Huazi is very strong and is still improving.

But at the same time, Huazi's performance seems to have stalled when it comes to data related to organization and control. Last season's assist rate and assist-to-loss ratio were almost exactly the same as those in the 2024 season. When put into the collection of ball holders, the ratings were all lower than 20 points, which is obviously far from a passing level. The star's lack of ability to organize offense made the Timberwolves' offense in the playoffs mainly focus on individual fights showing athletic talent. When facing a team like the Thunder, which has an extremely strict defensive system and does not suffer from physical fitness, it seems completely inadequate..

In the playoffs, this shortcoming of Edwards was ruthlessly targeted. Huazi, who encountered a large number of double-teams on the defensive end, suffered a significant decline in offensive output and efficiency, but there was no corresponding improvement in the data related to organizing the offense. This resulted in Huazi's influence and help to the team on the offensive end being greatly reduced. So during the offseason, Edwards began to work hard on his ability to break double teams. Let’s take a look at his progress in this area in the new season~

The most improved aspect of Edwards is his ability to shoot three-pointers with the ball. Last season, his three-point production with the ball ranked first in the league, and his shooting rate exceeded 90% with the ball. However, it should be noted that this improvement in shooting percentage is very abrupt compared to the stable shooting rate in the past four seasons, so the possibility of a subsequent correction in shooting percentage is not low, and his free throw shooting rate is only stable at above 80% and has not yet entered the high level of 85%. These all indicate a potential correction in shooting percentage. However, with Edwards's huge production of three-pointers with the ball, opponents will never dare to underestimate every catch he makes outside the three-point line. This will greatly enhance his threat with the ball, just like Tatum is to the Celtics.

Compared with three-pointers, Edwards's attack output last season reached the lowest value in the past five seasons. The downgrade of the space environment after Towns was replaced by Randle still had a considerable impact, which also shows that Huazi's shooting distribution still has room for further improvement.

In the playoffs, Huazi's three-point shooting rate with the ball has indeed suffered a serious decline. Combined with the diving of his free throw shooting rate, it can be seen that Huazi's overall shooting status in the playoffs is very poor, but he can still make a lot of contributions to the team by attacking the frame with a much higher output than in the regular season.

In general, Edwards needs to focus on the offensive end in the new season to improve his ability to "better create opportunities for teammates after being double-teamed", while maintaining the huge progress he made in the field of ball-holding three-pointers in the 25th season, and radiating more of his scoring threat to his teammates. Only in this way can he truly become a top 10 player in the league, instead of the current situation where his contribution per unit time is not outstanding and he relies on high attendance rate to reach the top 10.

Given that the Timberwolves will most likely rotate with 7-8 players next season, I hope they can continue to maintain the health of the past few seasons, get a good ranking in the regular season, and once again challenge strong teams such as the Nuggets and Thunder. In the 25th season, the two strongest teams in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics and the Cavaliers, both encountered a lot of injury problems, which made the Pacers stand out. The Timberwolves with a stable lineup also have the opportunity to wait for similar opportunities. Just continue to improve and wait for the opportunity~~