Friday 003 Norway vs Italy! Italy may be unable to escape tonight~

1. Fighting intention and promotion situation

Norway

Currently, the group has two consecutive victories and 6 points. If you win in this game, you will consolidate your top advantage and the probability of directly advancing to the World Cup has increased significantly.

has been in a hot state recently, with 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last 10 games, averaging 2.8 goals on the offensive end (Haland 3 goals and 1 assist in 2 games), but there are hidden dangers on the defensive end (conceding 12 goals in the last 10 games).

has a significant home advantage, with 5 wins and 1 loss in the last 6 home games, averaging 3.67 goals per game, and a 100% unbeaten rate at home.

Italy

Due to the conflict between the European League, the first two rounds of the World Cup qualifiers were bye and temporarily ranked fourth with 0 points. In the first game, we need to make every effort to grab points to avoid falling into a playoff crisis.

has been in a sluggish state recently, the European League was eliminated by Germany (1-2, 3-3), conceded 8 goals in 3 games on the defensive end, and its stability is doubtful after the reorganization of the defense line.

Playout pressure: If the group cannot qualify, FIFA ranking 9 may affect the playoffs, and the first in the group will become the primary goal.

2. Lineup and injury impact

Norway

Core: midfielder Odegao, Haaland (Manchester City striker) and Sollot (Atletico Madrid star) are in a hot state, and the front line is threatening.

Hidden dangers of defense: The main central defender Gregson (hamstring injury) is absent, the substitute central defender lacks experience, and the high-level defense is easily penetrated by counterattacks.

Italy

Defense line collapsed: The core of the defense Achelbi withdrew from the team, and four main players including Buongiorno and Calafiori were injured. Rugani, who had not been recruited for six years, and the tacit understanding was doubtful.

Midfield weakening: Locatelli (ankle injury) and Keane (muscular injury) withdraw, and the Tonali + Barrera combination needs to undertake more offensive and defensive tasks.

3. Comparison of tactical styles

Norway

High pressure pressing + three-dimensional offense: focus on 4-3-3 formation, Haaland is restrained in the middle, Odegao (if playing) passes directly, and set pieces from the wing crosses combined with set pieces (Haland heads to the top success rate of 5.2 times/game).

Defensive loopholes: Front-pressing and back-defense are prone to expose gaps, and the proportion of goals conceded by counterattacks in the last 10 games has reached 40%.

Italy

Defensive counterattack + ball control penetration: It is expected to adopt a 3-5-2 or 4-3-3 formation, relying on the midfield control of Barrera + Tonali, Chiesa broke through on the wing and competed with Retge, but her defense line was reorganized and she decreased.

Short offense: Only 4 goals were scored in the last 3 World Cup qualifiers, and the front ending efficiency was insufficient (12% shot conversion rate).

4. Historical confrontations and psychological games

Italy's traditional advantages: 10 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the last 17 confrontations, 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the official matches, but the latest confrontation was 2015 (Italy won 2-1).

Norway suppresses home: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 home games, and has remained unbeaten against Italy in the past 10 years (if the friendly match is included), and there is no disadvantage in the psychological level.

5. Data and institutional forecasts

Handicap trend: The initial draw (Italy low water), and the on-the-spot adjustment was to Norway tied half (high water). The institutions have increased their confidence in the home team but are still cautious.

Score prediction: mainstream institutions tend to Norway 2-1 (25%), 1-1 (20%), Italy 1-2 (15%), and half-game draw/small hotter.

6. The key to winning and losing and the prediction of results

Norway breaks the deadlock:

Use Haaland's high-altitude advantage to impact Italy's temporary defense line, especially the unfamiliar areas between Bastoni and Coppola.

quickly counterattacked on the wing, targeting the shortcomings in the Italian three central defender system's recovery speed.

Italian winner:

Midfield control and cutting Norwegian offensive series, Chiesa broke through the wing to create a set piece opportunity.

Rely on Donnarumma's divine pounce and experience to limit Haaland's ending efficiency.

Results prediction:

High probability that Norway will not be defeated (65% chance of winning and drawing), and home momentum and offensive firepower may be the decisive factors.

choose Italy to fight back and win (probability 25%), if Chiesa and Retge seize the opportunity to fight back, they may steal points.

Unpopular options: Norway wins (3-1), but Haaland needs to perform exceptionally well and have a clean line of defense.

Summary: Norway, with its home advantage, offensive firepower and Italian defense crisis, is likely to continue its winning momentum; Italy needs to overcome the incomplete lineup and psychological pressure, and counterattack efficiency may become a key variable. The game may be in a stalemate in the first half and Norway's strength in the second half, and the draw needs to be focused on preventing.

Recommendation Norway's transfer victory

Age reference 10 11

Pictures are from the Internet