Rockets overtake on the curve! Three-party transaction locks in Irving, Houston bets on the playoffs savior

Strategic transformation of superstar game‌

When the entire league focused on the Rockets' pursuit of Durant (the local media in Houston once listed it as the "best option"‌), management quietly turned to a more pragmatic prey—‌Kyrie Irving‌. The 33-year-old point guard's playoff history (average of 23.8 points + 47.2% shooting percentage) is perfectly in line with the needs of the Rockets' young core, and the urgency of the Mavericks to rebuild (Frager needs to clear space on the top) pressed the acceleration button for the trade.

Irving's hidden value: The key to breaking the playoffs‌

The attacking ability fills the fatal shortcomings‌

The core crux of the Rockets' first round of the playoffs last season is that the key ball is weak: In the game with a score difference of ≤5 points in the last 5 minutes, the team's shooting percentage was only 39.1% (the sixth from the bottom in the league). Irving averaged 3.4 points + 52.7% shooting percentage this season, and his singles efficiency was 92% of the players in the Super League.

The "acceleration catalyst" of young core‌

Jaylen Green‌: The catch-up three-point shooting percentage is 41.3%, far exceeding the 32.1% of the ball-holding shot. Irving’s breakthrough pass can activate his unball potential.

Shen Jing‌: The power doubles when the high-level support ability meets the top pick-and-roll hands (refer to Jokic + Murray), Irving scores 1.12 points per round after the pick-and-roll 89% of the point guards in the Super League‌;

Amen Thompson‌: The defensive end is liberated as a "guerrilla soldier", focusing on locking the opponent’s arrow (the case of limiting Curry to 1 of 10 will become the norm).

Short-term contracts with controllable risks‌

Compared with Durant’s remaining 1 year of 54.71 million in the "poison contract", Irving’s three-year maximum salary of 120 million (average salary of 40 million) is staggered with Green and Shen Jing’s contract renewal windows to avoid salary proof.

Mavericks' reconstruction abacus: Foreshadowing of the Flag era‌

The lineup reorganization with zero risk at the box office‌

After Flag was elected as the No. 1 pick, the pre-sale volume of Mavericks' season tickets soared by 23%, and Irving's departure will not impact revenue‌. Sending off his big contract makes room for Flag to grow (28% of the ball rights required).

Draft pick harvesting strategy‌

If the deal is reached, the Mavericks can obtain at least 1 unprotected first round + 2 second rounds from the Rockets to pursue top wings in 2026 (such as Jazz Markkanen). In the US media simulation plan, the Rockets are even willing to issue the Suns signing in 2025 (the probability of protection in the top four is 17.3%).

The optimal equation for three-party transactions is to balance salary, and the Thunder may become the key third party:

Rockets win: Irving (Mavericks)

Mavericks win: Bertans (Thunder) + Jeff Green (Rockets) + 2025 Suns first round (Rockets) + 2027 Nuggets first round (Thunder)

Thunder win: Kevin Porter Jr. (Rockets) + 2026 Mavericks second round

Under this framework, the Rockets retain potential stocks such as Ethan and Amen. The Mavericks win high-value draft picks, while the Thunder harvests low-risk lottery.

Irving effect: qualitative change in the Rockets' playoff ceiling‌

If the deal is complete, the Rockets' new starter will appear:

Irving (point guard) - Green (point guard) - Dillon (small front) - Smith (big forward) - Shin Kyung (center)

Offensive end‌: Irving + Shin Kyung can score 121.5 points per 100 rounds, 95% of the duo in the Super League; Green's free-cut efficiency will be improved by 40%.

Defensive end: Amen led the bench to build a "stranger formation", continuing the top five defensive efficiency levels last season.

US media Second Spectrum model estimates: this lineup can jump the Rockets' playoff winning rate from 34.7% to 58.1%, and double the probability of the Western Conference Finals.

History always rhymes‌

When Durant waited for a trade under the scorching sun in Phoenix, Irving had cleared the locker in the Dallas locker. Rockets general manager Stone has three unread messages stored in his mobile phone: "Welcome to Houston" - Sendered by: Jaylen Green, Alperen Shinkyung, Amen Thompson.

Mavericks boss Cuban looked at the draft pick quotation with a cigar in his mouth. Thunder general manager Presti said on the phone: "We can eat that contract from Porter." In Houston's late-night training hall, Irving's fingertips twitch the basketball arc will guide the Rockets to find a way out to cross the playoffs - this has never been a big gamble, but a natural result of genius and timing.