ESPN expert: Harry s sluggish performance is just a key goal in G1, G2 can better reflect the trend of the series

(The original article was published on June 9, the author is the NBA expert group of ESPN website, and the content of the article does not represent the translator's opinion)

Halliburton scored the final game and stole the first victory for the Pacers, the Thunder tied the series with a refreshing victory in G2. The Thunder G2 won 123-107. With the strongest defense in the league, Halliburton scored only 5 points in the first three quarters, completely killing the possibility of a reversal. The new MVP Alexander scored a game-high 34 points, and the Finals Series is about to move to Indiana to fight a key third game. The NBA expert team of

ESPN website analyzed Halliburton's finals dilemma, the Pacers' rebound strategy, and the biggest variables in this round of the series. What is the biggest adjustment the Pacers need to make in G3?

Kevin Pelton: Coach Carlisle should consider reducing the rotation. Although the Pacers' lineup depth is highly respected in the playoffs, the Thunder's bench depth is actually better, and they expanded their lead by relying on the bench lineup in the first and second half. Coach Carlisle especially needs to increase the playing time for Halliburton and Turner. When the two are on the court at the same time, the Pacers can basically stay on par with the Thunder, and the team's net loss reaches double-digits after they leave the court.

Michael C. Wright: For an offensive engine like Halliburton, only 5 shots in the first half were far from enough to affect the situation. The point guard should probably be more aggressive early in the game, which can create opportunities for teammates. The Thunder's defense is indeed excellent, but his performance of only 5 points on 2 of 7 shots in the first three quarters is in stark contrast to the explosion of 12 points in the final quarter.

Ramona Shelburne: Pacers must strengthen the fast attack. Although it is a bit risky to face the Thunder who is good at playing conversion offenses, the G2 Pacers' offense is stagnant and fails to put enough pressure on the Thunder's defense. If you can increase the frequency of fast attack (G2 scores 9 points only by fast attack), you can at least create some easy scoring opportunities.

Bobby Marks: We must attack the inside more resolutely. The smoothest offensive wave in G2 came from Nemhard and Siakam scored 7 points in a row in the second quarter. This wave of offensive finally ended with Nesmith's three-pointer, which narrowed the gap to 13 points. Before the start of the fourth quarter, the Pacers scored a net loss of 16 points in the penalty area.

Zach Kram: The Thunder did not have the advantage in the regular season free throws, but the Thunder had the advantage in the first two games of the finals. As a disadvantaged side, the Pacers must seize this rare weakness and try to create more free throw opportunities. For example, increasing the frequency of attacking the basket, or allowing Siakamdo to misplace the singles to play a short defender.

How does Halliburton's performance in the finals so far?

Ramona Shelburne: Ups and downs. Halliburton's overall performance was mediocre, but he scored a key winning goal. In an interview with ESPN after the game, he claimed that he had "played badly" besides the winning goal and promised to rebound. But he has not improved in G2, which is largely due to the Thunder's defensive strategy. Just like the Western Conference Finals against Edwards, the Thunder put pressure on Halliburton early in the offensive round, forcing him to throw the ball and cut off his teammates' catch route. Halliburton faces the same challenge as Edwards: a way to crack double-teams must be found to remain aggressive.

Kevin Pelton: To be expected. As Zach Kram pointed out in the series preview, Halliburton has averaged less than any other opponent in the past two seasons, and I have stressed that his average against Dortmund is the lowest of any regular defender in the same period. The Thunder's historical defense was the main reason they were favored before the game. After replacing Haltenstein with Carson Wallace, Halliburton's offensive breakthrough was missing.

Zach Kram: It saved the praise with the inspiration at critical moments. Given that we are already questioning whether Halliburton can improve his performance, imagine how fierce the criticism will be if the G1's winning ball pops up.

Bobby Marks: If you only look at the fourth quarter, Halliburton is still one of the best players on the court. But unfortunately, his negative performance in the first three quarters of G2 directly led to the equalization of the series. In the first three quarters, Halliburton reminds people of the Pacers' defeat against the Knicks G5. He also only made 7 shots in the first three quarters, while he made 6 shots in the final quarter of the final G2, which is only 1 less than the total of the first three quarters.

Michael C. Wright: Below expectations. Halliburton's self-criticism after G1 is very pertinent, and G2's poor performance will make him fall into self-blame again. According to statistics from ESPN website, Thunder G1 sent 8 different defenders against Halliburton, and Dortmund let him make 0 of 2 shots when he was defending. The G2 Thunder continued the same strategy, resulting in the 25-year-old point guard's career record of 5 turnovers (regular season + playoffs). Halliburton has made more than three consecutive turnovers, setting a record for his longest since March 2024.

Judging from the first two games, what is the X factor in the finals?

Bobby Marks: Isaiah Haltenstein. Although technical statistics do not record cover assists, Haltenstein will be extremely eye-catching if there is this data. When Jaylen Williams had difficulty getting shot space in the first quarter (only one shot), it was Haltenstein's two solid covers at the beginning of the second quarter that created two consecutive easy-to-scoring opportunities for Jaylen Williams.

Kevin Pelton: Shooting efficiency is not only the traditional cognition of three-point shooting percentage. "This is a league that scores or hits a blacksmith" is often considered to be only suitable for three-point shooting, but there is also randomness in two-point shooting (after all, Pat Riley created this famous saying, the proportion of three-point shooting was much lower than the current situation). The G1 Thunder's two-point shooting percentage is only 41%, while the GeniusIQ website's quantitative shooting efficiency model is calculated based on factors such as shooting position, defensive distance and player ability. The expected shooting percentage should be 53%. The G2 Thunder rebounded strongly, with two-point shooting percentage increasing to 56.5%.

Zach Kram: Substitute score. Despite Halliburton's sluggish form, the Pacers still had a net better of 7 points while on the court. The problem is that the team lost 22 points in the 23 minutes he rested. Fortunately, G1 Topin contributed 17 points (including 5 three-pointers), while G2 Thunder's substitute Aaron Wiggins and Caruso scored 38 points (9 three-pointers). The performance of Thunder's character player at home may become the key to the series.

Michael C. Wright: The bench contest between the two sides. We just witnessed Aaron Wiggins (average 10 points in the past five games and 18 points in G2) and Caruso (never 20+ in the regular season, and have been in the second playoffs) scored 38 points in G2, defeating the Pacers' substitute (34 points), while the G1 Pacers' substitute still dominated 39-28. It is said that role players will play stronger at home, and G3 will know the difference when they return to Indiana.

Ramona Shelburne: Although he does not want to blame the referee, the Thunder's hand-to-hand combat style does benefit from the loose harshness of the harshness. When the referee allows high-intensity physical confrontation like G2, it is difficult for the opponent's offensive system to operate smoothly. Which game,

G1 or G2, better illustrate the direction of the remaining games in the series?

Kevin Pelton: G1 is outlier from multiple perspectives, even before the Pacers reversed and won. I think the G2 is more likely to be a template for the series, but now I believe the Pacers' three-point shooting percentage will rebound (G2 is only 35%). This is their fifth worst outside shooting performance in the playoffs. As expected, they lost all five games.

Ramona Shelburne: The Thunder set the largest net win difference in the regular season, so it is not surprising that they have established too large score leads in both finals. G1 and their failure to completely end the game resulted in a comeback, while G2's defense was obviously more stable. By limiting Halliburton's touch, cutting off the Pacers' offensive lifeline, this strategy will continue to cause trouble for the Pacers.

Zach Kram: Considering that the Pacers have repeatedly made shocking reversals in the playoffs this year, I hesitate to question their ability to chase points. But if you fall behind by more than 15 in each game, it is still unrealistic to win the series. The Pacers must maintain their second half firepower (66 points per game in the finals) while improving their first half performance (only 43 points per game) to have a chance of winning.

Bobby Marks: The trend of G2 is more likely to continue, after all, the Thunder has the upper hand in the series 99.7% of the time, but this does not mean that the Thunder has escaped the shadow of the G1 collapse. The Pacers seized the home advantage as they wished, and the series was far from over.

Michael C. Wright: The trend of G1 falling behind by 15 points at one point and G2 falling behind by 23 points at the largest point indicates that the G2 model is more likely to continue. To be honest, most people predict that the Thunder will resolve the battle within six games. Although we expect the Pacers to continue their tenacious playoff style, this prediction after G2 is approaching reality. Is there any overlooked highlights in

G3?

Michael C. Wright: Siakam scored more than 21 points in 8 of the 16 games before entering the finals, including three 30+ performances in the Eastern Conference Finals. This makes people ask: Can we see him really explode in the Finals series? Under Dortmund's tight defense against Halliburton, the Pacers need Siakam to contribute more, and he has never made more than 15 shots in a single game. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Siakam made at least 16 attempts in each victory, and only 14 or less in two defeats.

Ramona Shelburne: The Thunder's lineup depth is their huge advantage, especially as the series deepens. This relieves the pressure on character players in specific games, as players like Aaron Wiggins are at risk of bursting out at any time, but role players usually do not perform as well as home games. In addition, the Thunder weakened Haltenstein by transferring him to the bench in the first few games.

Kevin Pelton: Rebounding Football. The G1 Thunder allowed the Pacers to grab more than 30% of offensive rebounds, while he only grabbed less than 20%. G2 With the same number of opportunities, the Thunder grabbed 4 more frontcourt boards than the Pacers. While this is not as important as turnovers and three-point shooting, the Pacers must win the rebounding battle to compete against the Thunder.

Bobby Marks: Alexander's break. When the MVP came off the court, the Thunder still scored 10 points in the first 7 minutes of the fourth quarter, which demonstrated the depth of the lineup. If the Pacers want to win the series, they must grasp these periods to build an advantage.

Zach Kram: After G1 did not use the double towers, Thunder G2 allowed Homgren and Haltenstein to play for 5 minutes at the same time, with a net win of 4 points during the period. Thunder coach Dagnot cleverly sent the double towers at Turner's break to avoid dealing with the Pacers' five-outside roster. The two of them played for a total of 50 minutes in G2 (G1 only 41 minutes), and this move may be further upgraded in G3.

Original text: NBA Insiders

Compiled by: Li Taibai