4 years of US$250 million, now he has a stumble with the team! 1 for 5 or join the Wizards, will the 76ers be forced to rebuild?

When the summer trading market gradually came to an end, the Philadelphia 76ers were being swept up by a storm that could tear apart the team's foundation. Joel Embiid, the core of the team and the four-year maximum salary contract of 250 million yuan, completely put the conflict between himself and the 76ers' management with a series of sharp remarks and a decisive attitude. From publicly accusing senior executives of "continuous mistakes", to refusing to promise a return schedule, to implicitly mocking teammate Maxi, the center who has won the MVP twice is pushing the team that has been playing for more than ten years to the brink of falling apart. The "1 for 5" trading plan proposed by the US media BR - Embiid joins the Wizards, and the 76ers exchange 3 instant combat power plus two first-round picks - may become the starting point for Philadelphia to be forced to reorganize.

The maximum salary is in hand, and the breakup is a foregone conclusion

In the summer of 2023, the 76ers did not hesitate to give Embiid a four-year, super maximum salary renewal contract of 250 million yuan. At that time, the team's management's logic was clear: as the top center of the league, Embiid was the only cornerstone of the team's championship. But just a year later, this contract that symbolizes trust became the background board for Embiid to break up with the team.

In recent ESPN interviews, every word from Embiid is like a sharp blade. He bluntly stated that the team's senior management "had too many continuity mistakes" in recent years, and even hoped to make this chaos into a TV series; facing the team's expectation of his return before the start of the new season, he decisively retorted: "There is no timetable, if I fail to fully recover, I will come back hastily and cannot help the team win any game!" What's more sharply is that he named "who leaked the news about Maxi's accusation that I was late", and emphasized that "it's difficult to get along with such a person", and this person is "still in the team" - these words will undoubtedly open the contradiction with Maxi, and will completely lose balance in the already turbulent locker room. The core of the contradiction stems from Embiid's dissatisfaction with the team's handling of his injuries. In March this year, Embiid announced a season reimbursement, and the Sixers' management did not want him to do so, and it was delayed until April to complete the operation. "The 76ers' senior executives don't want to listen to my explanation. I told reporters that surgery was needed, which was a call for help, and they refused to admit the actual situation." Embiid's accusation exposed the huge gap between the players and the management in terms of injury cognition. In his opinion, the team is extremely indifferent to their physical condition, and even puts the pressure on record above health; and the management may believe that as the core of the maximum salary, Embiid's "active season reimbursement" and vague comeback attitude are consuming the team's championship window.

What is more interesting is Embiid's absolute desire to control his own state. In the past two seasons, after Harden left the team, no one could restrain his ball-holding choice. He began to dribble over halftime like a defender, and he only played 58 games in total. Now he emphasizes that "the return must be full of form", which seems to be responsible for victory, but in fact it implies distrust of the team - he is unwilling to take risks for a team with "professional problems" when his health is not at its best. The root of this contradiction may be the depression that Embiid has been unable to lead the team to break through the Eastern Conference semi-finals for ten years: as an MVP player, he is both eager to prove himself and afraid of the accusations after failure, and ultimately transforms the pressure into dissatisfaction with the environment.

MVP's controversy: the core of the qualification, or the "data brush"?

Embid always likes to talk about MVP, but the outside world has never stopped questioning him: as a two-time MVP winner, he has not even touched the division finals. Is such a performance worthy of the label of "qualified core"?

Looking back at his MVP season in 2022-23, behind his gorgeous data of 33.1 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, Harden's support is inseparable. That season, Harden averaged 4.9 direct assists to him. Including the indirect free throw opportunities, at least half of Embiid's score was related to Harden. The attendance rate of 66 games and the true shooting percentage of 66.5% are all based on Harden's pick-and-roll restraint and passing vision. But when Harden left the team in the summer of 2023, Embiid's "solo mode" did not succeed: in the past two seasons, his attendance rate plummeted to an average of 29 games, and the team also stopped in the first round of the East for two consecutive years.

Without Harden's strategy, Embiid's ball-holding rights reached the peak of his career, but also exposed his shortcomings: excessive ball holding has led to an increase in turnover rate (average of 3.5 mistakes per game in the past two seasons), frequent back-to-body singles and dribbling breakthroughs have increased knee load (this may be one of the reasons for his frequent injuries), and his choice at critical moments has also been criticized - facing the Celtics in the first round of the 2023-24 season, he made 0 of 4 shots in the last 5 minutes of the decisive game, watching the team be eliminated.

What is even more embarrassing is his impact on the team system. When Embiid is on the court, the 76ers' offensive space is often compressed: he is used to holding the ball for a long time at low posts, which has led to players such as Maxi, Harris, etc. being forced to stand outside the three-point line and wait for opportunities. Data shows that when Embiid was present in the past two quarters, the average number of three-point shots per game by 76ers has dropped by 4.2 times, and the assist rate has dropped by 7.3%. This "one person holds the ball, four people watch" model has caused the team's offensive efficiency to fall from the top 5 in the league to 15th.

Embid may refute that "injuries affect the state", but the leadership performance in health is also unconvincing. In the 2021-22 season, he played 68 games, and the team was eliminated by the Heat in the Eastern Conference semi-finals; in the 2020-21 season, he played 51 games, losing to the Hawks in the Eastern Conference semi-finals. In the past decade, the 76ers have only reached the Eastern Conference semi-finals as far as the center, and as the absolute core, Embiid's "leadership" has always been doubtful - he was publicly accused by Maxi for "late training", and now he hinted that his teammates have leaked the news, and the distrust in the locker room has long laid the groundwork.

1 for 5 trades: Wizards' gamble and Philadelphia's reconstruction chips

When Embiid's rift with the team cannot be bridged, the trade becomes the only way to break the deadlock. But the 4-year maximum salary contract of 250 million yuan and frequent injuries greatly reduced the value of his transaction value.. Even so, the American media BR still proposed a feasible plan: the 76ers sent Embiid to exchange for Alex Saar, Chris Middleton, Marcus Smart from the Wizards, as well as first-round draft picks in 2027 and 2030.

For the Wizards, this is a high-risk and high-reward gamble. Although Embiid is plagued by injuries, he is still the top five center in the league when he is healthy. His scoring ability (27.2 points per game in his career) and deterrence at the basket (2.5 blocks per game in the past five years) can instantly increase the Wizards' offensive limit. The Wizards can give Embiid a year to completely recover their health, while the team can choose to play badly and compete for high picks + train young people. When Embiid is resurrected next season, Embiid + McCollum + a large number of young people are enough to make them enter the playoffs in the East. As a small football market, the Wizards have no market and no strength. This transaction is the best way to increase their popularity.

For the 76ers, this transaction is more like a "stop loss reconstruction". The 23-year-old Saar has a potential return: he averaged 13.0 points and 6.5 rebounds last season, and had good finishing ability and mobility at the basket. Although his talent is not as talented as Embiid, he wins in his youth and health, and can become a long-term inside partner around Maxi. Middleton and Smart are the first to add to their combat power: Middleton, as the champion forward, averaged 17.9 points and 4.7 assists in his career, can provide stable mid-range singles and key ball skills; Smart is the best defensive player, and his defensive resilience and locker room leadership can just make up for the "hardness" currently missing by the 76ers. The two first-round picks lay the groundwork for the future - 2027 and 2030 are the year of the draft, and the 76ers can use this to hoard young talents and rebuild around Maxi and Tanhua Edgecom.

It is worth noting that this transaction can alleviate the salary pressure of 76 people. Embiid's salary is as high as 58 million next season, while Middleton (38 million) and Smart (18 million) have a total of 56 million, almost the same, but Middleton's contract will expire in 2025 and Smart's contract expires in 2026. Compared with Embiid's long contract to 2029, it has significantly higher flexibility. If the 76ers choose to completely rebuild, they can send Middleton away next summer and release their salary space to pursue new stars with all their might.

Crossroads in Philadelphia: Reorganization is the only way out

Regardless of whether the transaction is reached or not, the reorganization of 76ers is inevitable. The team's current salary structure is seriously unbalanced: Embiid has 250 million in four years + George has 162 million in three years. The two have a total salary of 101 million next season, accounting for 65% of the team's salary cap, but both face serious injuries (George has three knee injuries in a year, and his return date is unknown). This "high salary and low ability" salary structure makes it difficult for the 76ers to strengthen their role players and get rid of the burden through trading.

What's even more difficult is that the team's core framework has collapsed. Embiid's open break means that he is almost impossible for him to play for the 76ers anymore; George's injury has made him a "premium contract"; although Maxi (23 years old, averaging 26.3 points last season), he lacks leadership experience, and his contradiction with Embiid may affect his position in the team; although Tetraga Edgecom is highly expected, he needs time to grow as a rookie. Such a lineup has neither the strength to compete for the championship nor the core cohesion for reconstruction.

If you choose to execute the BR trading plan, the 76ers can get at least three reconstruction paths: use Maxi as the core, and build a young lineup with Saar and Edgecomb; use the instant combat power of Middleton and Smart to attack the playoffs, while observing the growth of young players; use two first-round picks to make gold in the future draft, waiting for the next "Embied" talent to appear. No matter which path, it is more feasible than the current "to fight Embiid" to the death.

For Embiid, leaving Philadelphia may also be a relief. He once said, "I may never hear from me again after retirement." This boredom with the spotlight may have stemmed from a decade of frustration. If he can join the Wizards and prove himself again in a new environment, he may be able to regain his original intention of playing; but if injuries continue to be troubled, he may really fade out of the league as he said, after the maximum salary contract expires.